Dairy Cow
Climate change is likely to offer both opportunities and challenges for dairy cow production in NSW by 2050.
Dairying forms a significant agricultural activity in NSW, and the Holstein breed plays a significant role. In the 2024-25 financial year, dairies in NSW produced 1.071 billion litres of milk. The dairy industry is spread widely across different climates in NSW, from the subtropical climate of Lismore to the semi-arid conditions of the Riverina, with most dairy farms located on the mid-north and far south coasts. As of 2025, there were a total of 443 licenced dairy farms in NSW, with an average milking herd size of 343 cows. The map shows the number of dairy cows in NSW (by LLS region), with darker colours representing higher numbers.
The production stages of calf growth, heifer growth, lactation and non-lactating (dry period) were chosen as key drivers of performance that could be impacted by changing climate conditions. The dairy cow MCA model was analysed monthly to allow for year-round calving dates.
What is the NSW DPIRD Climate Vulnerability Assessment? ⏷
Climate change is altering the growing conditions for many agricultural commodities across NSW. Primary producers need evidence-based information about the changing climate, and the risks and opportunities it may bring.
The NSW DPIRD Climate Vulnerability Assessments are enhancing the resilience of our primary industries by providing information and data to help the sector better plan for, and respond to, climate change. They have assessed climate change impacts for extensive livestock, broadacre and irrigated cropping, marine fisheries, forestry, horticulture and viticulture, and important biosecurity risks associated with these industries to inform sound planning, risk management and adaptation decisions.
How we assessed climate suitability ⏷
Climate projections were sourced from Climate Change in Australia’s ‘Application Ready Data’. This dataset is comprised of projections from an ensemble of 8 global climate models, each presenting a plausible future climate. The models differ in their projections, giving rise to uncertainty which is reflected in the confidence statements given in brackets. Care should be taken when interpreting these results.
The Climate Vulnerability Assessment is intended to highlight potential industry- or regional-level changes. Intermediate and high emissions scenarios were used in the assessments (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), but these are not the only future scenarios possible. The inclusion of climate variables important to the commodities production was based on published research, expert knowledge and data quality and availability.
Learn more in the Climate Vulnerability Assessment Project Framework.
Climate impacts: what to expect
What climate impacts on cows mean for the dairy industry
The projected changes, spread over production stages, seasons and locations, translate into a range of implications that could create both benefits and challenges for dairy production in the dairy regions by 2050.
Climate suitability for dairy cows is likely to remain at its historical levels across all NSW dairy regions in 2050.
Hunter dairy region
Autumn
- Minimal decreases in climate suitability for lactation and the dry period are likely to occur in early autumn around Singleton and Tamworth.
Winter
- Negligible change in climate suitability is likely across all life stages, as high to very high climate suitability is maintained across the Hunter dairy region.
Spring
- A minimal increase in climate suitability for calf growth is likely in areas around Muswellbrook and Singleton.
- Minimal decreases in climate suitability for lactation and the dry period are likely to occur in late spring around Tamworth.
Summer
- A minimal to moderate increase in climate suitability for calf growth is likely in areas around Muswellbrook and Singleton. Singleton is also likely to experience a minimal increase in climate suitability for heifer growth and the dry period.
- Minimal decreases in climate suitability for heifer growth, lactation and the dry period are likely to occur throughout the summer months around Tamworth.
Inland dairy region
Autumn
- Minimal decreases in climate suitability for the dry period are likely to occur in early autumn across the Inland dairy region, and for lactation near Dubbo in mid-autumn.
Winter
- Negligible changes in climate suitability are likely across all life stages, as moderate to very high climate suitability is retained across the Inland dairy region.
Spring
- Minimal decreases in climate suitability for lactation and the dry period are likely to occur in late spring across the Inland dairy region, and for heifer growth near Forbes.
Summer
- Minimal decreases in climate suitability for heifer growth and the dry period are likely to occur throughout the summer months across the Inland dairy region, and for lactation near Cowra.
Riverina Murray dairy region
Autumn
- Minimal decreases in climate suitability for the dry period are likely to occur near Wagga Wagga in early autumn.
Winter
- Historical levels of high to very high climate suitability for all production stages is likely to be maintained across the Riverina Murray dairy region during winter in the future.
Spring
- Minimal decreases in climate suitability for lactation are likely to occur in late spring across the Riverina Murray region. Minimal decreases in climate suitability for the dry period are also expected near Deniliquin in late spring.
Summer
- A minimal increase in climate suitability for calf growth is likely near Finley in mid-summer.
- Minimal decreases in climate suitability for heifer growth, lactation and the dry period are likely to occur across the Riverina Murray dairy region during summer.
South Coast dairy region
Autumn
- Minimal increases in climate suitability for calf growth is likely near Nowra in late autumn.
Winter
- Minimal increases in climate suitability for calf growth is likely near Nowra throughout winter.
Spring
- Minimal increases in climate suitability for calf growth is likely in early to mid-spring across the region.
Summer
- Minimal decreases in climate suitability for lactation is likely near Bega and Nowra in early summer.
North Coast dairy region
Autumn
- Negligible changes in climate suitability are likely across all life stages, with moderate to very high climate suitability maintained across the North Coast dairy region.
Winter
- Negligible changes in climate suitability are likely across all life stages, with high to very high climate suitability maintained across the North Coast dairy region.
Spring
- A minimal increase in climate suitability for calf growth is likely in early spring in areas around Kempsey and Taree.
- Minimal decreases in climate suitability for lactation are likely to occur across the spring months around Kempsey.
Summer
- Minimal decreases in climate suitability for the dry period are likely to occur in summer around Kempsey and Lismore.
Adapting to the changing climate
Dairy farmers and industry have been adapting to climate variability and changing conditions for many years. Dairy Australia’s resources for managing heat stress, including the ‘Cool Cows’ report, provide current, practical guidance for managing heat stress, and these practices will continue to support heat-resilient dairy systems into the future.
Adaptation options include:
- Provide shade and use sprinklers to help cool cows.
- Ensure that cool clean drinking water is available and easy to access.
- Adjust feeding and grazing schedules to cooler times of the day.
- Modify milking times to avoid the hottest part of the day.
- Minimise walking and yard time during the hottest part of the day.
Long term strategies:
- Adjust the timing of calving patterns to avoid the hot summer months.
- Select for more heat-tolerant animals using the heat-tolerance Australian Breeding Values.
- Increase shade across the farm by planting trees or investing in permanent shade and cooling infrastructure.
Where can I find the climate suitability maps?
Maps of historical and future climate suitability for commodities were produced to demonstrate where in the state a commodity is likely to thrive or else be limited by future climatic conditions. The maps are provided in the Dairy Cow Results Report (PDF, 8107.74 KB).
Data availability
The geospatial data which was used to prepare the Dairy Cow Results Report are available on SEED, the NSW Government’s environmental data portal, in the Climate Vulnerability Assessment collection.
Dairy Cow Results Report
(PDF, 8107.74 KB)
Funding
The Storm and Flood Recovery Program – Dairy Sector Recovery and Resilience project was funded by the Australian and NSW Governments' Storm and Flood Recovery Program.
Contact us
For more information, please get in touch with vulnerability.assessment@dpi.nsw.gov.au